PoToMaW (Points To Match Win) is a tennis measure of direct distance from victory. It reflects the number of consecutive points a player would need to win the match.
Before and after each point, both players have a PoToMaW. Each point changes one or both measures, depending on the context of the given point. In general,
formula
P_M = P_G + 4·(G_S − 1) + 24·(S_M − 1)
where
P_G = points to win current game
G_S = games to win current set
S_M = sets to win the match
At the start of a men's Grand Slam (best of 5 sets), both players begin at 72 PoToMaW. At the start of a women's match (best of 3 sets), both begin at 48. The match ends when one player reaches 0.
Winning a point always decreases that player's PoToMaW by 1. Losing a point early in a game has no effect. But losing past the second point — entering deuce territory — increases it. Losing a game or set that a player made progress in increases their PoToMaW even more.
derived metrics
- Damage — cumulative sum of all PoToMaW increases over the match. Measures how much point progress towards a match win was destroyed.
- Lead Lost — the largest lead the eventual loser ever held at any point in the match. 0 means a wire-to-wire win.
- Avg PoToMaW — average distance to the match win across all points, split by winner and loser.